Market Regime

Last update: 2026-09-11T05:03 UTC

Global Regime
VIX 17.8 / MA20 17.8
LOWNORMALHIGH
↑ RISINGL↑N↑H↑
→ STABLEL→N→H→
↓ FALLINGL↓N↓H↓
Raw: NORMAL | Term structure: ?
DXY 99.100 / MA fast 98.972
LOWNORMALHIGH
↑ RISINGL↑N↑H↑
→ STABLEL→N→H→
↓ FALLINGL↓N↓H↓
MA fast/slow ratio: 1.00072
Dispersion 0.000512
LOWHIGH
↑ RISINGL↑H↑
↓ FALLINGL↓H↓
Thresholds lo/hi: 0.000000 / 0.000000
Per-Pair Regime (13 pairs)
PairVol RegimeTrend StateATRATR %Vol RankADXHurst
AUDUSD NORMAL STRONG_TREND_DOWN 0.00066 0.000922 ?% 51.1 0.474
EURUSD QUIET STRONG_TREND_DOWN 0.000662 0.00057 ?% 44.73 0.541
GBPUSD QUIET STRONG_TREND_DOWN 0.000863 0.000639 ?% 51.27 0.523
NZDUSD NORMAL WEAK_TREND_UP 0.000727 0.001248 ?% 38.45 0.552
USDCAD QUIET STRONG_TREND_UP 0.000691 0.000499 ?% 46.17 0.559
USDCHF QUIET STRONG_TREND_UP 0.000657 0.000807 ?% 47.58 0.529
USDCNH QUIET WEAK_TREND_UP 0.001336 0.000199 ?% 36.32 0.486
USDJPY NORMAL STRONG_TREND_UP 0.162675 0.001054 ?% 53.78 0.601
USDMXN NORMAL RANGE_BOUND 0.013853 0.000815 ?% 31.52 0.447
USDNOK NORMAL WEAK_TREND_UP 0.010999 0.001184 ?% 44.86 0.507
USDPLN QUIET WEAK_TREND_UP 0.00323 0.000866 ?% 30.31 0.511
USDSEK NORMAL STRONG_TREND_UP 0.01129 0.001163 ?% 65.49 0.489
USDZAR NORMAL WEAK_TREND_UP 0.02192 0.001352 ?% 27.92 0.503
System Implications
FV-FAST
All sizes at 100% - no reductions active
[inactive] ALL: x0.5 when dispersion = high (Sharpe 16.97->18.18)
[inactive] ALL: x0.75 when vix = high (Sharpe 16.97->17.43)
ELASTICITY-REVERSAL
GATED (7 pairs)
AUDUSD - NORMAL, verdict: NOISE
GBPUSD - QUIET, verdict: NOISE
NZDUSD - NORMAL, verdict: no_data
USDCAD - QUIET, verdict: NOISE
USDCNH - QUIET, verdict: NOISE
USDJPY - NORMAL, verdict: NOISE
USDPLN - QUIET, verdict: NOISE
REDUCED (2 pairs)
EURUSD - QUIET, size x0.5, verdict: FRAGILE
USDCHF - QUIET, size x0.5, verdict: FRAGILE
FULL SIZE (1 pairs)
USDMXN - NORMAL, verdict: VIABLE
RANGE TRADING
TRADEABLE (5 pairs)
NZDUSD - NORMAL, size x0.5, signal: session, verdict: FRAGILE
USDCNH - QUIET, size x1.0, signal: session, verdict: VIABLE
USDNOK - NORMAL, size x1.0, signal: range, verdict: VIABLE
USDSEK - NORMAL, size x1.0, signal: boll, verdict: ROBUST
USDZAR - NORMAL, size x1.0, signal: range, verdict: VIABLE
Recent Regime Transitions
TimeScopeDimensionFromTo
2026-04-07T12:33 USDZAR trend_state WEAK_TREND_DOWN -> RANGE_BOUND
2026-04-07T12:33 USDSEK trend_state WEAK_TREND_DOWN -> WEAK_TREND_UP
2026-04-07T12:33 USDCNH trend_state RANGE_BOUND -> WEAK_TREND_DOWN
2026-04-07T12:33 global dispersion low -> normal
2026-04-07T08:33 USDSEK vol_regime ELEVATED -> STRESS
2026-04-07T08:33 USDCNH vol_regime NORMAL -> ELEVATED
2026-04-07T06:33 USDMXN trend_state RANGE_BOUND -> WEAK_TREND_DOWN
2026-04-07T04:33 USDPLN trend_state WEAK_TREND_DOWN -> RANGE_BOUND
2026-04-07T03:33 USDSEK vol_regime STRESS -> ELEVATED
2026-04-07T03:33 USDMXN trend_state WEAK_TREND_DOWN -> RANGE_BOUND
Trade Router v2 | 2026-09-11 05:33 UTC